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Overcast Network and the Blue Team Advantage

Overcast Network (OCN) is a minecraft server network that features player vs. player (PvP) minigames.  There are a variety of gamemodes that take place on over 100 maps, where matches can last anywhere from a few seconds to a few hours.

The matches typically involve two teams of various colors, but the most common match up is red vs. blue.  This is signified through things like dyed armor and colored name tags.  Some people have speculated that, in certain situations, one team may have an advantage over the other.  Blue, for example, blends in better with water.  Red blends in better with things like lava and other reddish blocks, but seems to be, overall, an easier color to spot.  Some players even go out of their way to join one team color over the other, perhaps trying to take advantage of this.



Another potential advantage-yielding asymmetry is literal asymmetry in map design.  Most of the maps being played are symmetric for all teams - one team's side is either a mirror image or a 180 degree rotation of the other.  The map Viridun is the best example of an exception to this.  On Viridun, both teams have the same starting gear, but the map is asymmetric both spatially and in the distribution of potions hidden in various places.

The effect of these asymmetries can be tested by looking at a large number of matches and seeing who wins more often.  Perfect symmetry would be when each team wins a match 50% of the time (I'm only looking at maps with two teams here).  Of course, we can only look at a finite number of matches and so we'd expect some variation from 50%, but we can determine if this variation is within the expected range by using some basic statistics.


Overall, blue won 49.685% of the matches (that sort of graph looks kind of familiar!).  This is consistent with no systematic advantage (or at least, no systematic advantage that is being exploited by players).  Breaking it down by gamemode, there is some variation, but none of the differences are statistically significant.

Looking at Viridun, however, we find that blue wins 66% of matches, which is statistically significant.  This is probably due to some combination of actual imbalances in the map and the fact that players who are very familiar with the map are aware of these imbalances and so are more likely to join the blue team, resulting in a better team.

Supporting Materials


Game Matches Blue Wins Χ2 V p
Overall 1270 49.6% 0.0504 0.0014 0.8224
Mini 450 48.4% 0.4356 0.0205 0.5093
CTW 107 57.9% 2.7009 0.2611 0.1003
DTC / DTM 85 49.4% 0.0118 0.0013 0.9136
TDM 38 55.3% 0.4211 0.0683 0.5164
Blitz 384 47.4% 1.0417 0.0532 0.3074
Viridun 142 66.2% 14.9015 1.2500 0.0001

Gamemode Glossary

  • CTW (Capture the Wool) - One team tries to capture wool blocks from the other team's side (capture the flag, basically).
  • DTC (Destroy the Core) - One team tries to leak lava from a team's core by breaking it.  A variation of this is DTM (destroy the monument), which involves breaking the blocks of another team's monument with no lava involved.
  • TDM (Team Death Match) - Teams try to accumulate the most kills and least deaths.
  • Blitz - Usually TDM, and you have limited lives.  A variation of this, Rage, includes weapons that kill in only one hit.
  • Mini - "Mini" versions of DTM, DTC, and CTW that have smaller team sizes and maps.

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  1. The chests are a big thing on Viridun. Blue's chests tend to be in semi easy to reach locations, maybe you just have to jump, or traverse a ledge. A lot of red's chests are out of the way, ie under bridges, on roofs, on clifftops. And some of what you might call red's chests are in the middle area.